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基于模糊风险矩阵和联系数的区域旱灾风险评估

金菊良 张诗懿 崔毅 周戎星 周亮广 李蔓 周玉良

金菊良,张诗懿,崔毅,等. 基于模糊风险矩阵和联系数的区域旱灾风险评估[J]. 水利水运工程学报. doi:  10.12170/20211002004
引用本文: 金菊良,张诗懿,崔毅,等. 基于模糊风险矩阵和联系数的区域旱灾风险评估[J]. 水利水运工程学报. doi:  10.12170/20211002004
(JIN Juliang, ZHANG Shiyi, CUI Yi, et al. Evaluation of regional drought risk based on fuzzy risk matrix and connection number[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering(in Chinese)) doi:  10.12170/20211002004
Citation: (JIN Juliang, ZHANG Shiyi, CUI Yi, et al. Evaluation of regional drought risk based on fuzzy risk matrix and connection number[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering(in Chinese)) doi:  10.12170/20211002004

基于模糊风险矩阵和联系数的区域旱灾风险评估

doi: 10.12170/20211002004
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2240223,52109009);安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划项目(gxyq2020055);安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(2108085QE254)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    金菊良(1966—),男,江苏吴江人,教授,博士,主要从事结构水资源学研究。E-mail:JINJL66@126.com

    通讯作者:

    崔 毅(E-mail:cuiyi9007@163.com

  • 中图分类号: S423

Evaluation of regional drought risk based on fuzzy risk matrix and connection number

  • 摘要: 旱灾风险的精准、有效评估对提高区域抗旱能力和降低灾害风险具有重要意义。基于旱灾风险系统不确定性特征及旱灾风险链式传递性机理引入联系数,实现模糊风险矩阵中悲观矩阵和乐观矩阵的合成、风险等级值的计算,提出了一种基于模糊风险矩阵和联系数的区域旱灾风险评估方法。济南市1999—2005年风险评估应用结果表明:济南市旱灾综合风险等级从1999年的超3级水平改善到2005年的接近1级的水平,在2001—2002年出现小幅波动,旱灾风险整体降低。该评估方法考虑了子系统间的相互作用,根据样本指标变化特征合成等级,据此可反映各年旱灾风险的动态变化。相较于传统的风险评估方法,新方法对各子系统旱灾风险评价等级判别得更细致,为区域旱灾风险评估提供了一种新途径。
  • 图  1  传统模糊风险矩阵[10]

    Figure  1.  Traditional fuzzy risk matrix[10]

    图  2  模糊风险矩阵

    Figure  2.  Fuzzy risk matrix

    图  3  AIA+BJB在数轴上的表示

    Figure  3.  Display of AIA+BJB on number axis

    图  4  3种评估方法的脆弱性风险评估结果对比

    Figure  4.  Comparison of vulnerability risk evaluation results of three evaluation methods

    图  5  不同评价方法旱灾风险综合评价等级的计算结果

    Figure  5.  Results of the comprehensive evaluation of drought risk in different evaluation methods

    表  1  济南市旱灾风险评价指标、权重与等级标准[8]

    Table  1.   Drought risk assessment index, weight and grade standard in Jinan City[8]

    子系统子系统权重指标层评价等级指标权重
    (1级)
    (2级)
    较低
    (3级)
    (4级)
    较高
    (5级)
    敏感性 0.4 人均水资源量X1/(m3/人) [500, 420] (420, 340] (340~260] (260~180] (180~100] 0.4
    地下水水位X2/m [30~28] (28~26] (26~24] (24~22] (22~20] 0.1
    森林覆盖率X3/% [60~50] (50~40] (40~30] (30~20] (20~10] 0.1
    第三产业产值比率X4/% [80~65] (65~50] (50~35] (35~20] (20~10] 0.2
    城市日用水量X5/万m3 [10~30] (30~40] (40~60] (60~80] (80~100] 0.2
    适应性 0.2 水库调蓄能力X6 /亿m3 [2.0~1.7] (1.7~1.4] (1.4~1.1] (1.1~0.8] (0.8~0.5] 0.6
    城市水资源协调能力X7 [10.0~7.5] (7.5~6.0] (6.0~4.5] (4.5~3.0] (3.0~0] 0.1
    万元GDP用水量X8/m3 [10~80] (80~180] (180~280] (280~350] (350~400] 0.1
    污水达标排放率X9/% [100~75] (75~60] (60~45] (45~30] (30~0] 0.15
    工业用水循环利用率X10/% [100~80] (80~60] (60~40] (40~20] (20~0] 0.05
    危险性 0.4 降雨量X11/mm [1 200~1] 000] (1 000~500] (500~400] (400~300] (300~200] 0.4
    致灾强度X12 [0~1.5] (1.5~2.5] (2.5~3.0] (3.0~4.5] (4.5~10.0] 0.2
    出现频率X13/% [50~30] (30~20] (20~10] (10~3] (3~1] 0.2
    重现期X14/年 [2~3] (3~5] (5~10] (10~30] (30~100] 0.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  济南市旱灾风险子系统各年评价样本联系数[8]及评价等级

    Table  2.   Connection number[8] and evaluation grade of evaluation samples of drought risk subsystem in Jinan City in each year

    联系数年份子系统各年评价样本联系数[8]评价等级[8]五元减法集对势[23]相对隶属度[1819, 2324]
    a b1 b2 b3 c
    敏感性 1999 0 0.123 0.393 0.377 0.108 4 −0.316 0.342
    2000 0 0.143 0.403 0.357 0.098 4 −0.282 0.359
    2001 0.025 0.153 0.368 0.347 0.108 4 −0.238 0.381
    2002 0 0.163 0.383 0.337 0.118 4 −0.298 0.351
    2003 0.050 0.180 0.323 0.320 0.128 4 −0.199 0.401
    2004 0.063 0.190 0.299 0.310 0.138 4 −0.181 0.409
    2005 0.063 0.200 0.289 0.300 0.148 4 −0.190 0.405
    适应性 1999 0.067 0.133 0.133 0.290 0.377 4 −0.526 0.237
    2000 0.140 0.139 0.088 0.318 0.315 4 −0.319 0.341
    2001 0.475 0.469 0.056 0 0 2 0.847 0.924
    2002 0.740 0.226 0.033 0 0 1 0.962 0.981
    2003 0.759 0.224 0.017 0 0 1 0.969 0.984
    2004 0.777 0.223 0 0 0 1 0.975 0.988
    2005 0.788 0.212 0 0 0 1 0.978 0.989
    危险性 1999 0 0.453 0.500 0.047 0 3 0.203 0.601
    2000 0.680 0.200 0.120 0 0 1 0.930 0.965
    2001 0.257 0.500 0.243 0 0 2 0.634 0.817
    2002 0 0.275 0.500 0.225 0 3 0.025 0.513
    2003 0.795 0.200 0.005 0 0 1 0.978 0.989
    2004 0.823 0.177 0 0 0 1 0.984 0.992
    2005 0.812 0.188 0 0 0 1 0.982 0.991
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  3种评估方法的脆弱性风险评估结果

    Table  3.   Vulnerability risk evaluation results of three evaluation methods

    年份指数法[14]风险矩阵法[8]本文评估方法
    19991.90344.000
    20001.86944.000
    20011.48432.802
    20021.41332.194
    20031.37622.135
    20041.37822.122
    20051.37522.128
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  济南市脆弱性联系数分量[8]、相对隶属度及风险等级

    Table  4.   Vulnerability connection number component[8], relative membership and risk grade in Jinan City

    联系数年份子系统各年评价样本联系数[8]风险等级五元减法集对势[23]相对隶属度[1819, 2324]
    ab1b2b3c
    脆弱性 1999 0.022 0.127 0.306 0.348 0.197 4.000 −0.398 0.301
    2000 0.047 0.142 0.298 0.344 0.170 4.000 −0.299 0.351
    2001 0.175 0.258 0.264 0.231 0.072 2.802 0.192 0.596
    2002 0.247 0.184 0.266 0.224 0.078 2.194 0.269 0.634
    2003 0.286 0.195 0.221 0.213 0.085 2.152 0.322 0.661
    2004 0.301 0.201 0.199 0.207 0.092 2.122 0.335 0.668
    2005 0.305 0.204 0.193 0.200 0.098 2.128 0.331 0.666
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  不同评价方法旱灾风险综合评估结果对比

    Table  5.   Comparison of the results of the comprehensive evaluation of drought risk in different evaluation methods

    年份短板法[27]指数法[14]风险矩阵法[8]本文评估方法
    1999 4 4.856 3 3.538
    2000 4 2.090 3 2.206
    2001 4 3.323 2 2.265
    2002 4 4.460 4 2.544
    2003 4 1.474 2 1.290
    2004 4 1.416 1 1.282
    2005 4 1.376 1 1.284
    下载: 导出CSV
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