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Anti-sliding stability reliability-based approach determining the early-warning value of deformation safety for gravity dam
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摘要: 抗滑稳定是重力坝设计与运行中关注的最基本要求，其宏观层面一定程度上可表征为重力坝变形性状的转异行为。大坝变形安全警戒值的确定，传统上多基于各种确定的结构参数和数学模型，缺乏对相关影响因素不确定性的考虑。因此，从不确定性分析理论入手，在对重力坝抗滑稳定可靠指标、变形与坝前水深相关性剖析的基础上，引入响应面法，通过对大坝变形水压分量与抗滑稳定可靠指标之间函数关系的合理拟合，依据现行可靠性设计规范，提出了一种基于抗滑稳定可靠指标的重力坝变形安全警戒值拟定方法，并进行了实际工程案例验证。通过与传统典型小概率法拟定结果的比较，得出了总体合理、可行的结论。文中方法是传统方法的有益补充，可作为传统方法计算结果的有效验证手段。Abstract: The anti-sliding stability is the most basic requirement for gravity dams. It can be regarded as the abnormal deformation behavior. The traditional ways to determine the early-warning value of dam deformation safety are commonly based on deterministic structure parameters and mathematical models. The uncertainty characteristics of the relevant influencing factors lack consideration. In order to solve the above problem, the theory of uncertainty analysis is applied. In this paper, the response surface method is introduced to fit the functional relation between the water pressure component of gravity dam deformation and the anti-sliding stability reliability index based on the analysis of the correlation between dam deformation, anti-sliding stability reliability index and water depth before the dam. According to the current reliability design specification, an anti-sliding stability reliability index-based approach determining the early-warning value of deformation safety for gravity dam is proposed and verified in the actual engineering case. The rationality of the conclusion is proved by comparing with the result of the typical small probability method. The proposed method can be regarded as useful complements and mutual verification means for the traditional methods.
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Key words:
- gravity dam /
- anti-sliding stability /
- deformation /
- safety early-warning value
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图 2 引张线EX4监测过程线和上游水位过程线
Figure 2. Monitoring process curve of EX4 and upstream water level hydrograph
图 3 坝顶水平位移拟合与实测过程线
Figure 3. Fitting and measured curves of dam crest horizontal displacement
图 4 坝顶水平位移各分量变化过程线
Figure 4. Variation curve of each component of dam crest horizontal displacement
图 5 抗滑稳定可靠指标与坝顶水平位移水压分量拟合曲线
Figure 5. Fitting curve between anti-sliding stability reliability and hydraulic pressure component of dam crest horizontal displacement
表 1 抗滑稳定可靠指标与坝顶水平位移水压分量计算样本
Table 1. Calculation samples about anti-sliding stability reliability index and hydraulic pressure component of dam crest horizontal displacement
样本序号 坝前水深/m 水压分量/mm 抗滑稳定可靠指标 1 44.90 2.694 5.828 2 46.98 2.606 5.650 3 49.78 2.435 5.460 4 52.84 2.180 5.266 5 55.05 1.956 5.087 6 57.52 1.668 4.904 7 60.77 1.233 4.708 8 65.28 0.537 4.490 9 69.31 0.164 4.281 10 70.90 0.459 4.118 11 72.03 0.674 3.965 12 73.43 0.946 3.808 13 75.40 1.215 3.642 14 76.30 1.379 3.496 
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表 2 坝顶水平位移极值统计
Table 2. Statistics of extreme value of dam crest horizontal displacement
序列 年份 极值/mm 1 2008 0.23 2 2009 0.27 3 2010 1.32 4 2011 1.31 5 2012 1.55 6 2013 2.85 7 2014 0.95
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