Email Alerts
RSS
Analysis of the spatial - temporal evolution characteristics of water resources - economic society - ecological environment coupling and coordination in Gansu Province
-
摘要: 水资源、经济社会和生态环境之间存在复杂的耦合关系，推进三者耦合协调是实现区域可持续发展的重要前提。基于耦合协调度模型测算2010—2019年甘肃省14个市（州）水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统耦合协调度，并结合重心演化模型对耦合协调度演变特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）2010—2019年间，甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境综合评价指数整体呈小幅上升趋势，空间分布与各市州水资源禀赋、经济社会发展和生态环境治理分布格局相一致；（2）考察期间甘肃省三系统耦合协调度处于[0.52,0.54]之间，属于基本协调类型；空间维度上各市（州）耦合协调类型或持续稳定或有所提升；（3）2010—2019年耦合协调度重心轨迹主要分布在兰州市，年均移动距离为7.19 km。应针对区域特点采取差异化策略以推动水资源—经济社会—生态环境向高级耦合协调方向演进。Abstract: The complex coupling relationship exists between water resources, economic society and ecological environment, and promoting the coupling and coordination of the three is an important prerequisite for achieving sustainable regional development. Based on the coupling coordination degree model, this paper measures the coupling coordination degree of water resources-economic society-ecological environment system in 14 cities and states of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2019, and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree by combining with the evolution model of center of gravity. The results show that (1) the overall water resources-economic society-ecological environment comprehensive evaluation index of Gansu Province showed a slight upward trend during 2010-2019, and its spatial distribution was consistent with the distribution pattern of water resources endowment, economic and social development and ecological environment management in each city and state; (2) the coupling coordination degree of the three systems in Gansu Province is between [0.52,0.54], which belonged to the basic coordination type, the spatial dimension of the coupling coordination type of each city (state) was either stable or improving; (3) the trajectory of the center of gravity of the coupling coordination degree from 2010 to 2019 was mainly in Lanzhou City, with an average annual distance of 7.19 km. A differentiated strategy should be adopted to promote the evolution of water resources-economic society-ecological environment towards advanced coupling coordination.
-
图 1 甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及综合评价指数
Figure 1. Water resources-economic society-ecological environment system and comprehensive evaluation index in Gansu Province
图 2 各市（州）水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及综合评价指数
Figure 2. Water resources - economic society - ecological environment system and comprehensive evaluation index of each city and state
图 3 水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调度
Figure 3. Coupling coordination degree of water resources - economy society - ecological environment
图 4 水资源、经济社会、生态环境及耦合协调度重心演变轨迹
Figure 4. Trajectory of the evolution of the center of gravity of water resources, economic society, ecological environment and coupling coordination
表 1 指标体系及权重
Table 1. Indicator system and weight
目标层 准则层 指标层 单位 指标性质 权重 水资源系统 水资源条件 降水量 mm + 0.1175 地下水资源量 亿m³ + 0.1510 地表水资源量 亿m³ + 0.1244 非常规水源利用量 亿m³ + 0.0981 全年供水总量 万t + 0.1026 水资源
利用水平产水模数 万m³/km² + 0.1316 自来水综合生产能力 万m³/d + 0.1055 人均日生活用水量 L + 0.1006 城市人口用水普及率 % + 0.0686 社会经济系统 经济结构 GDP 万元 + 0.0735 全社会固定资产投资额 亿元 + 0.0810 财政收入 万元 + 0.0804 人均地区生产总值 元/人 + 0.0968 社会消费品零售总额 万元 + 0.0791 第二产业占GDP比重 % + 0.1000 第三产业占GDP比重 % + 0.0896 社会发展 城镇人口比重 % + 0.1114 有效灌溉面积 kha + 0.0981 人口密度 人/km2 + 0.0984 人口自然增长率 ‰ + 0.0918 生态环境系统 环境保护
与建设市区绿化覆盖率 % + 0.1199 城市园林绿地面积 公顷 + 0.1122 生态环境用水量 亿m³ + 0.1559 工业固体废物综合利用量 万t + 0.1923 生活垃圾清运量 t + 0.1179 城市污水日处理能力 万m³ + 0.1235 环境污染 废水排放量 万t − 0.0613 化学需氧量排放量 万t − 0.1171 注：+、−分别代表正指标、负指标。 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 研究方法
Table 2. Research methods
方法 计算公式 模型释义 意义 本文应用 标准化 正指标：$ {{X}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{ij}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}}{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}} $
逆指标：$ {{X}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{ij}}}{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}} $Xij为标准化后系统i的j指标值；xmax和xmin分别为指标最大、最小值；xij为系统i的第j指标原值 消除指标间量纲差异 应用于各系统综合评价指数确定过程中各项指标的标准化 熵权法 ${ {P} }_{ {ij} }{=}\dfrac{ { {x} }_{ {ij} } }{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{ {j-1,\;n} }^{ {n} }{ {x} }_{ {ij} } }{(}{i}{=1,2}{，}{…}{，}{n)}$
${ {E} }_{ {j} }{=-}{ { {\rm{ln} }(n)} }^{ {-1} }\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ {1} }^{ {n} }{ {P} }_{ {ij} }{\cdot}{ {\rm{ln} } }{ {P} }_{ {ij} }$
$ {{W}}_{{j}}{=}\dfrac{{1-}{{E}}_{{j}}}{{k-}\displaystyle\sum {{E}}_{{j}}}{(}{j}{=1,2}{，}{\cdots}{，}{m)} $
${ {W} }_{ {ij} }{=}{ {W} }_{ {j} }\Bigg/ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{ {1} }^{ {m} }{ {W} }_{ {j} }$Pij为第j个指标所占比重；Ej为第j个指标熵值；Wj为各指标权重；Wij为修正后的指标权重；n为地级市数；m为各系统指标总数 权重的确定过程中避免
主观因素的影响确定各指标权重 综合评价指数 ${ {R} }_{ { {\rm{WR} } } }{=}\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ {j=1} }^{ {m} }{ {W} }_{ {i}{j} }{ {X} }_{ {ij} }$
${ {R} }_{ { {\rm{ES} } } }{=}\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ {j=1} }^{ {m} }{ {W} }_{ {ij} }{ {X} }_{ {ij} }$
${ {R} }_{ { {\rm{EE} } } }{=}\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ {j=1} }^{ {m} }{ {W} }_{ {ij} }{ {X} }_{ {ij} }$
$ {T}{={{a}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{+{{b}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{+{{c}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}} $RWR、RES、REE分别为水资源、经济社会、生态环境系统综合评价指数； T为三系统综合评价指数；a、b和c分别为各系统所占权重，a=b=c=1/3 对各系统发展水平进行测度 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及各系统综合评价指数 耦合协调度 $ {C=3×}{\left\{\dfrac{{{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{×}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{×}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}}}{{\left({{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{+}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{+}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}}\right)}^{{3}}}\right\}}^{{1/3}} $
$ {D}{=}\sqrt{{C×T}} $C为耦合度；D为耦合协调度，参考相关学者[23-25]研究结果，耦合协调度划分见下表3 耦合度是对系统间关联程度进行度量的指标[24]；耦合协调度可判定系统间的协调发展状况 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调度 重心偏移 ${ { {a} }=}\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ { { {i} }=1} }^{ { { {n} } } }{ { {\textit{z} } } }_{ {i} }{ { { {a} } } }_{ {i} }\Bigg/\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ { { {i} }=1} }^{ { { {n} } } }{ { {\textit{z} } } }_{ {i} }$
${ { {b} }=}\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ { { {i} }=1} }^{ { { {n} } } }{ { {\textit{z} } } }_{ {i} }{ { { {b} } } }_{ { { {i} } } }\Bigg/\displaystyle\sum\limits_{ { { {i} }=1} }^{ { { {n} } } }{ { {\textit{z} } } }_{ {i} }$zi为第i个空间单元的属性值（即RWR、RES、REE和D）；ai、bi为经纬度值；a、b为该属性的重心坐标，详见文献[26] 当区域的属性值在总体中占比较大时，重心发生偏移，旨在揭示区域发展的空间均衡程度 探究甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统综合评价指数和耦合协调度重心演化过程 重心移动距离 $ {D}{=}{C}\sqrt{{{(}{{{{b}}}}_{{({{t}}+1)}}{-}{{{{b}}}}_{{{{t}}}}{)}}^{{2}}{+}{{(}{{{{a}}}}_{{({{t}}+1)}}{-}{{{{a}}}}_{{{{t}}}}{)}}^{{2}}} $ C为转换系数111.111 km（是C的取值为111.111吗？如是，请添加相关标点或文字？？？），详见文献[26]；t为年份 可反映区域属性值变动的距离 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统综合评价指数和耦合协调度重心的移动距离
下载: 导出CSV
表 3 耦合协调度等级划分
Table 3. Classification of coupling coordination levels
协调等级 失调 濒临失调 基本协调 初级协调 中级协调 高级协调 优质协调 耦合协调度 [0,0.4) [0.4,0.5) [0.5,0.6) [0.6,0.7) [0.7,0.8) [0.8,0.9) [0.9,1.0]
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 李爱花, 李原园, 郦建强. 水资源与经济社会及生态环境系统协同发展初探[J]. 人民长江,2011,42(18):117-121 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2011.18.031 LI Aihua, LI Yuanyuan, LI Jianqiang. Preliminary discussion on synergetic development between water resources and social economy and eco-environment[J]. Yangtze River, 2011, 42(18): 117-121. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2011.18.031 [2] 王浩, 李海红, 赵勇, 等. 落实新发展理念 推进水资源高效利用[J]. 中国水利,2021(6):49-51 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2021.06.011 WANG Hao, LI Haihong, ZHAO Yong, et al. Highlighting efficient utilization of water resources under the new development concept[J]. China Water Resources, 2021(6): 49-51. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2021.06.011 [3] 薛曜祖, 李佩娟. 区域开发强度与环境资源耦合的时空演变分析[J]. 环境科学与技术,2019,42(2):224-230 doi: 10.19672/j.cnki.1003-6504.2019.02.034 XUE Yaozu, LI Peijuan. Study on spatio-temporal evolution of the coordination between regional development degree and resource environment level[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2019, 42(2): 224-230. (in Chinese) doi: 10.19672/j.cnki.1003-6504.2019.02.034 [4] 刘艳军, 刘静, 何翠, 等. 中国区域开发强度与资源环境水平的耦合关系演化[J]. 地理研究,2013,32(3):507-517 LIU Yanjun, LIU Jing, HE Cui, et al. Evolution of the coupling relationship between regional development strength and resource environment level in China[J]. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(3): 507-517. (in Chinese) [5] 熊曦, 肖俊. 武陵山片区城镇化与生态环境耦合协调度时空分异: 以六个中心城市为例[J]. 生态学报,2021,41(15):5973-5987 XIONG Xi, XIAO Jun. Evaluation of coupling coordination between urbanization and eco-environment in six central cities, Wuling Mountain area[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2021, 41(15): 5973-5987. (in Chinese) [6] KIM D S, MIZUNO K, KOBAYASHI S. Analysis of urbanization characteristics causing farmland loss in a rapid growth area using GIS and RS[J]. Paddy and Water Environment, 2003, 1(4): 189-199. doi: 10.1007/s10333-003-0032-1 [7] 刘晶, 刘翠善, 李潇, 等. 中国水-能源-粮食关联系统协同安全评价[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2020(4):24-32 doi: 10.12170/20190603009 LIU Jing, LIU Cuishan, LI Xiao, et al. Security evaluation of water-energy-food nexus system in China[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2020(4): 24-32. (in Chinese) doi: 10.12170/20190603009 [8] 王丽川, 侯保灯, 周毓彦, 等. 城市水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展研究[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2021(1):9-17 doi: 10.12170/20200217001 WANG Lichuan, HOU Baodeng, ZHOU Yuyan, et al. Research on the coupling coordinative degree in urban water-energy-food system[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2021(1): 9-17. (in Chinese) doi: 10.12170/20200217001 [9] 吴青松, 马军霞, 左其亭, 等. 塔里木河流域水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合系统和谐程度量化分析[J]. 水资源保护,2021,37(2):55-62 doi: 10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2021.02.009 WU Qingsong, MA Junxia, ZUO Qiting, et al. Quantitative analysis on harmony degree of water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling system in the Tarim River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2021, 37(2): 55-62. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2021.02.009 [10] 袁汝华, 臧艳秋. 长江经济带经济发展与水资源环境耦合协调性实证分析[J]. 水利经济,2021,39(2):1-8,95 doi: 10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2021.02.001 YUAN Ruhua, ZANG Yanqiu. Empirical analysis of coupling and coordination between economic development and water resource environment in Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources, 2021, 39(2): 1-8,95. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2021.02.001 [11] 张凤太, 苏维词. 贵州省水资源-经济-生态环境-社会系统耦合协调演化特征研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报,2015,34(6):44-49 doi: 10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2015.06.010 ZHANG Fengtai, SU Weici. The evolution characteristics of coupling and coordination of water resources-economy-environment-society system in Guizhou[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2015, 34(6): 44-49. (in Chinese) doi: 10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2015.06.010 [12] 蒋桂芹, 靖娟, 周翔南. 黄河流域水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统耦合协调发展评价[C]∥中国水利学会. 2018学术年会论文集第一分册. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2018: 120-125. （JIANG G Q, JING J, ZHOU X N. Evaluation of the coupled water resources-economy-society-ecology-environment system in the Yellow River Basin[C]∥China Water Resources Society Proceedings of the 2018 Annual Academic Conference. Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2018: 120-125. （in Chinese） [13] 杜湘红, 张涛. 水资源环境与社会经济系统耦合发展的仿真模拟: 以洞庭湖生态经济区为例[J]. 地理科学,2015,35(9):1109-1115 DU Xianghong, ZHANG Tao. The simulation to coupling development between water resource & environment and socio-economic system: Dongting Lake ecological economic zone as an example[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(9): 1109-1115. (in Chinese) [14] 闻豪, 文风. “一带一路”重点省份水资源-经济-生态环境耦合协调分析[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版),2019,52(10):870-877 doi: 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2019-10-004 WEN Hao, WEN Feng. Coupling and coordination analysis of water resources-economy-ecological environment in key provinces of “the Belt and Road”[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2019, 52(10): 870-877. (in Chinese) doi: 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2019-10-004 [15] 马世骏, 王如松. 社会-经济-自然复合生态系统[J]. 生态学报,1984,4(1):1-9 MA Shijun, WANG Rusong. The social-economic-natural complex ecosystem[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 1984, 4(1): 1-9. (in Chinese) [16] 冯尚友, 刘国全, 梅亚东. 水资源生态经济复合系统及其持续发展[J]. 武汉水利电力大学学报,1995(6):624-629 FENG Shangyou, LIU Guoquan, MEI Yadong. Water resources-ecological economic complex system and its sustainable development[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, 1995(6): 624-629. (in Chinese) [17] 姚志春, 安琪. 区域水资源生态经济系统耦合关系分析[J]. 水资源与水工程学报,2011,22(5):63-68 YAO Zhichun, AN Qi. Coupling relative analysis of eco-economic system of regional water resources[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2011, 22(5): 63-68. (in Chinese) [18] 王莺, 王劲松, 姚玉璧. 甘肃省河东地区气象干旱灾害风险评估与区划[J]. 中国沙漠,2014,34(4):1115-1124 doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00358 WANG Ying, WANG Jinsong, YAO Yubi. Assessment and regionalization on meteorological drought disaster risk in the Hedong area of Gansu Province, China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2014, 34(4): 1115-1124. (in Chinese) doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00358 [19] 潘竟虎. 甘肃省区域生态补偿标准测度[J]. 生态学杂志,2014,33(12):3286-3294 doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.2014.0291 PAN Jinghu. Regional eco-compensation standard in Gansu Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2014, 33(12): 3286-3294. (in Chinese) doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.2014.0291 [20] 万晨. 安徽省水资源—社会经济系统的协同度研究[D]. 合肥: 合肥工业大学, 2017. WAN Chen. Research on synergy degree of water resources system and social economical system in Anhui Province[D]. Hefei: Hefei University of Technology, 2017. （in Chinese） [21] 王猛飞, 高传昌, 张晋华, 等. 黄河流域水资源与经济发展要素时空匹配度分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2016(6):38-42 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-2284.2016.06.010 WANG Mengfei, GAO Chuanchang, ZHANG Jinhua, et al. An analysis of spatio-temporal matching of water resources and economic development factors in the Yellow River Basin[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2016(6): 38-42. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-2284.2016.06.010 [22] 江红莉, 何建敏. 区域经济与生态环境系统动态耦合协调发展研究——基于江苏省的数据[J]. 软科学,2010,24(3):63-68 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8409.2010.03.015 JIANG Hongli, HE Jianmin. The dynamic coupling model of coordinated development between regional economic and ecological environment systems based on Jiangsu Province[J]. Soft Science, 2010, 24(3): 63-68. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8409.2010.03.015 [23] 廖重斌. 环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J]. 热带地理,1999,19(2):171-177 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5221.1999.02.013 LIAO Chongbin. Quantitaitve judgement and classification system for coordinated development of environment amd economy—a case study of the city group in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Tropical Geography, 1999, 19(2): 171-177. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5221.1999.02.013 [24] 任保平, 杜宇翔. 黄河流域经济增长—产业发展—生态环境的耦合协同关系[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2021,31(2):119-129 REN Baoping, DU Yuxiang. Coupling coordination of economic growth, industrial development and ecology in the Yellow River Basin[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2021, 31(2): 119-129. (in Chinese) [25] 姜磊, 柏玲, 吴玉鸣. 中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析——兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式[J]. 自然资源学报,2017,32(5):788-799 doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160512 JIANG Lei, BAI Ling, WU Yuming. Coupling and coordinating degrees of provincial economy, resources and environment in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(5): 788-799. (in Chinese) doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160512 [26] 齐亚伟. 中国区域经济增长、碳排放的脱钩效应与重心转移轨迹分析[J]. 现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2018,38(5):17-29 QI Yawei. Decoupling effect and gravity center trajectory of regional economic growth and carbon emissions in China[J]. Modern Finance and Economics-Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, 2018, 38(5): 17-29. (in Chinese) -
点击查看大图
图(4) / 表 (3)
计量
- 文章访问数: 86
- HTML全文浏览量: 58
- PDF下载量: 3
- 被引次数: 0
