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Analysis of the spatial - temporal evolution characteristics of water resources - economic society - ecological environment coupling and coordination in Gansu Province
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摘要: 水资源、经济社会和生态环境之间存在复杂的耦合关系，推进三者耦合协调是实现区域可持续发展的重要前提。基于耦合协调度模型测算2010—2019年甘肃省14个市（州）水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统耦合协调度，并结合重心演化模型对耦合协调度演变特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）2010—2019年间，甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境综合评价指数整体呈小幅上升趋势，空间分布与各市州水资源禀赋、经济社会发展和生态环境治理分布格局相一致。（2）考察期间甘肃省三系统耦合协调度处于[0.52,0.54]之间，属于基本协调类型；空间维度上各市（州）耦合协调类型或持续稳定或有所提升。（3）2010—2019年耦合协调度重心轨迹主要分布在兰州市，年均移动距离为7.19 km。应针对区域特点采取差异化策略以推动水资源—经济社会—生态环境向高级耦合协调方向演进。Abstract: The complex coupling relationship exists between water resources, economic society and ecological environment, and promoting the coupling and coordination of the three is an important prerequisite for achieving sustainable regional development. Based on the coupling coordination degree model, this paper measures the coupling coordination degree of water resources-economic society-ecological environment system in 14 cities and states of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2019, and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree by combining with the evolution model of center of gravity. The results show that (1) the overall water resources-economic society-ecological environment comprehensive evaluation index of Gansu Province showed a slight upward trend during 2010-2019, and its spatial distribution was consistent with the distribution pattern of water resources endowment, economic and social development and ecological environment management in each city and state. ; (2) the coupling coordination degree of the three systems in Gansu Province is between [0.52,0.54], which belonged to the basic coordination type, the spatial dimension of the coupling coordination type of each city (state) was either stable or improving; (3) the trajectory of the center of gravity of the coupling coordination degree from 2010 to 2019 was mainly in Lanzhou City, with an average annual distance of 7.19 km. A differentiated strategy should be adopted to promote the evolution of water resources-economic society-ecological environment towards advanced coupling coordination.
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图 1 甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及综合评价指数
注：RWR、RES、REE、T分别代表经济社会、生态环境、水资源系统综合评价指数和三系统综合评价指数
Figure 1. Water resources - economic society - ecological environment system and comprehensive evaluation index in Gansu Province
图 2 各市（州）水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及综合评价指数
Figure 2. Water resources - economic society - ecological environment system and comprehensive evaluation index of each city and state
图 4 水资源、经济社会、生态环境及耦合协调度重心演变轨迹
Figure 4. Trajectory of the evolution of the center of gravity of water resources, economic society, ecological environment and coupling coordination
图 3 水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调度
Figure 3. Coupling coordination degree of water resources - economy society - ecological environment
表 1 指标体系及权重
Table 1. Indicator system and weight
目标层 准则层 指标层 单位 指标性质 权重 水资源系统 水资源条件 降水量 mm + 0.1175 地下水资源量 亿m³ + 0.1510 地表水资源量 亿m³ + 0.1244 非常规水源利用量 亿m³ + 0.0981 全年供水总量 万t + 0.1026 水资源
利用水平产水模数 万m³/km² + 0.1316 自来水综合生产能力 万m³/d + 0.1055 人均日生活用水量 L + 0.1006 城市人口用水普及率 % + 0.0686 社会经济系统 经济结构 GDP 万元 + 0.0735 全社会固定资产投资额 亿元 + 0.0810 财政收入 万元 + 0.0804 人均地区生产总值 元/人 + 0.0968 社会消费品零售总额 万元 + 0.0791 第二产业占GDP比重 % + 0.1000 第三产业占GDP比重 % + 0.0896 社会发展 城镇人口比重 % + 0.1114 有效灌溉面积 kha + 0.0981 人口密度 人/km2 + 0.0984 人口自然增长率 ‰ + 0.0918 生态环境系统 环境保护
与建设市区绿化覆盖率 % + 0.1199 城市园林绿地面积 公顷 + 0.1122 生态环境用水量 亿m³ + 0.1559 工业固体废物综合利用量 万t + 0.1923 生活垃圾清运量 t + 0.1179 城市污水日处理能力 万m³ + 0.1235 环境污染 废水排放量 万t − 0.0613 化学需氧量排放量 万t − 0.1171 注：+、−分别代表正指标、负指标。 
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表 2 研究方法
Table 2. Research methods
方法 计算公式 模型释义 意义 本文应用 标准化 正指标：$ {{X}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{ij}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}}{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}} $
逆指标：$ {{X}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{ij}}}{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}} $Xij为标准化后系统i的j指标值；xmax和xmin分别为指标最大、最小值；xij为系统i的第j指标原值 消除指标间量纲差异 应用于各系统综合评价指数确定过程中各项指标的标准化 熵权法 $ {{P}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{ij}}}{{\displaystyle\sum }_{{i=1}}^{{n}}{{x}}_{{ij}}}{(}{i}{=1,2}{，}{…}{，}{n)} $
$ {{E}}_{{j}}{=-}{{{\rm{ln}}(n)}}^{{-1}}{\displaystyle\sum }_{{1}}^{{n}}{{P}}_{{ij}}{\cdot}{{\rm{ln}}}{{P}}_{{ij}} $
$ {{W}}_{{j}}{=}\dfrac{{1-}{{E}}_{{j}}}{{k-}\displaystyle\sum {{E}}_{{j}}}{(}{j}{=1,2}{，}{\cdots}{，}{m)} $
$ {{W}}_{{ij}}{=}\raisebox{1ex}{${{W}}_{{j}}$} \left/ \raisebox{-1ex}{${\displaystyle\sum }_{{1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{j}}$}\right. $Pij为第j个指标所占比重；Ej为第j个指标熵值；Wj为各指标权重；Wij为修正后的指标权重；n为地级市数；m为各系统指标总数 权重的确定过程中避免
主观因素的影响确定各指标权重 综合评价指数 $ {{R}}_{{{\rm{WR}}}}{=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{\rm{j=1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{i}{j}}{{X}}_{{ij}} $
$ {{R}}_{{{\rm{ES}}}}{=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{\rm{j=1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{ij}}{{X}}_{{ij}} $
$ {{R}}_{{{\rm{EE}}}}{=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{\rm{j=1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{ij}}{{X}}_{{ij}} $
$ {T}{={\rm{a}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{+{\rm{b}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{+{\rm{c}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}} $RWR、RES、REE分别为水资源、经济社会、生态环境系统综合评价指数； T为三系统综合评价指数；a、b和c分别为各系统所占权重，a=b=c=1/3 对各系统发展水平进行测度 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及各系统综合评价指数 耦合协调度 $ {C=3×}{\left\{\dfrac{{{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{×}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{×}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}}}{{\left({{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{+}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{+}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}}\right)}^{{3}}}\right\}}^{{1/3}} $
$ {D}{=}\sqrt{{C×T}} $C为耦合度；D为耦合协调度，参考相关学者[23-25]研究结果，耦合协调度划分见下表3 耦合度是对系统间关联程度进行度量的指标[24]；耦合协调度可判定系统间的协调发展状况 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调度 重心偏移 $ {{\rm{a}}=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}}{{{\rm{a}}}}_{{i}}/{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}} $
$ {{\rm{b}}=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}}{{{\rm{b}}}}_{{{\rm{i}}}}/{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}} $zi为第i个空间单元的属性值（即RWR、RES、REE和D）；ai、bi为经纬度值；a、b为该属性的重心坐标，详见文献[26] 当区域的属性值在总体中占比较大时，重心发生偏移，旨在揭示区域发展的空间均衡程度 探究甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统综合评价指数和耦合协调度重心演化过程 重心移动距离 $ {D}{=}{C}\sqrt{{{(}{{{\rm{b}}}}_{{({\rm{t}}+1)}}{-}{{{\rm{b}}}}_{{{\rm{t}}}}{)}}^{{2}}{+}{{(}{{{\rm{a}}}}_{{({\rm{t}}+1)}}{-}{{{\rm{a}}}}_{{{\rm{t}}}}{)}}^{{2}}} $ C为转换系数111.111 km，详见文献[26]；t为年份 可反映区域属性值变动的距离 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统综合评价指数和耦合协调度重心的移动距离
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表 3 耦合协调度等级划分
Table 3. Classification of coupling coordination levels
协调等级 失调 濒临失调 基本协调 初级协调 中级协调 高级协调 优质协调 耦合协调度 [0,0.4) [0.4,0.5) [0.5,0.6) [0.6,0.7) [0.7,0.8) [0.8,0.9) [0.9,1.0]
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