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甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调演变分析

张恬姿 王小军 齐广平 康燕霞 银敏华 马彦麟 贾琼 张向宁

张恬姿,王小军,齐广平,等. 甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调演变分析[J]. 水利水运工程学报. doi:  10.12170/20220406001
引用本文: 张恬姿,王小军,齐广平,等. 甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调演变分析[J]. 水利水运工程学报. doi:  10.12170/20220406001
(ZHANG Tianzi, WANG Xiaojun, QI Guangping, et al. Analysis of the spatial - temporal evolution characteristics of water resources - economic society - ecological environment coupling and coordination in Gansu Province[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering(in Chinese)) doi:  10.12170/20220406001
Citation: (ZHANG Tianzi, WANG Xiaojun, QI Guangping, et al. Analysis of the spatial - temporal evolution characteristics of water resources - economic society - ecological environment coupling and coordination in Gansu Province[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering(in Chinese)) doi:  10.12170/20220406001

甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调演变分析

doi: 10.12170/20220406001
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52121006,41961124006);国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才支持计划;自然资源部国土空间规划体系重大问题研究项目(20210103)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    张恬姿(1998—),女,山西吕梁人,硕士研究生,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:1004825564@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    齐广平(E-mail:qigp@gsau.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: TV-9

Analysis of the spatial - temporal evolution characteristics of water resources - economic society - ecological environment coupling and coordination in Gansu Province

  • 摘要: 水资源、经济社会和生态环境之间存在复杂的耦合关系,推进三者耦合协调是实现区域可持续发展的重要前提。基于耦合协调度模型测算2010—2019年甘肃省14个市(州)水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统耦合协调度,并结合重心演化模型对耦合协调度演变特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)2010—2019年间,甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境综合评价指数整体呈小幅上升趋势,空间分布与各市州水资源禀赋、经济社会发展和生态环境治理分布格局相一致。(2)考察期间甘肃省三系统耦合协调度处于[0.52,0.54]之间,属于基本协调类型;空间维度上各市(州)耦合协调类型或持续稳定或有所提升。(3)2010—2019年耦合协调度重心轨迹主要分布在兰州市,年均移动距离为7.19 km。应针对区域特点采取差异化策略以推动水资源—经济社会—生态环境向高级耦合协调方向演进。
  • 图  1  甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及综合评价指数

    注:RWRRESREET分别代表经济社会、生态环境、水资源系统综合评价指数和三系统综合评价指数

    Figure  1.  Water resources - economic society - ecological environment system and comprehensive evaluation index in Gansu Province

    图  2  各市(州)水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及综合评价指数

    Figure  2.  Water resources - economic society - ecological environment system and comprehensive evaluation index of each city and state

    图  4  水资源、经济社会、生态环境及耦合协调度重心演变轨迹

    Figure  4.  Trajectory of the evolution of the center of gravity of water resources, economic society, ecological environment and coupling coordination

    图  3  水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调度

    Figure  3.  Coupling coordination degree of water resources - economy society - ecological environment

    表  1  指标体系及权重

    Table  1.   Indicator system and weight

    目标层准则层指标层单位指标性质权重
    水资源系统 水资源条件 降水量 mm + 0.1175
    地下水资源量 亿m³ + 0.1510
    地表水资源量 亿m³ + 0.1244
    非常规水源利用量 亿m³ + 0.0981
    全年供水总量 万t + 0.1026
    水资源
    利用水平
    产水模数 万m³/km² + 0.1316
    自来水综合生产能力 万m³/d + 0.1055
    人均日生活用水量 L + 0.1006
    城市人口用水普及率 % + 0.0686
    社会经济系统 经济结构 GDP 万元 + 0.0735
    全社会固定资产投资额 亿元 + 0.0810
    财政收入 万元 + 0.0804
    人均地区生产总值 元/人 + 0.0968
    社会消费品零售总额 万元 + 0.0791
    第二产业占GDP比重 % + 0.1000
    第三产业占GDP比重 % + 0.0896
    社会发展 城镇人口比重 % + 0.1114
    有效灌溉面积 kha + 0.0981
    人口密度 人/km2 + 0.0984
    人口自然增长率 + 0.0918
    生态环境系统 环境保护
    与建设
    市区绿化覆盖率 % + 0.1199
    城市园林绿地面积 公顷 + 0.1122
    生态环境用水量 亿m³ + 0.1559
    工业固体废物综合利用量 万t + 0.1923
    生活垃圾清运量 t + 0.1179
    城市污水日处理能力 万m³ + 0.1235
    环境污染 废水排放量 万t 0.0613
    化学需氧量排放量 万t 0.1171
      注:+、−分别代表正指标、负指标。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  研究方法

    Table  2.   Research methods

    方法计算公式模型释义意义本文应用
    标准化 正指标:$ {{X}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{ij}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}}{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}} $
    逆指标:$ {{X}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{ij}}}{{{x}}_{{\max}}{-}{{x}}_{{\min}}} $
    Xij为标准化后系统ij指标值;xmaxxmin分别为指标最大、最小值;xij为系统i的第j指标原值 消除指标间量纲差异 应用于各系统综合评价指数确定过程中各项指标的标准化
    熵权法 $ {{P}}_{{ij}}{=}\dfrac{{{x}}_{{ij}}}{{\displaystyle\sum }_{{i=1}}^{{n}}{{x}}_{{ij}}}{(}{i}{=1,2}{,}{…}{,}{n)} $
    $ {{E}}_{{j}}{=-}{{{\rm{ln}}(n)}}^{{-1}}{\displaystyle\sum }_{{1}}^{{n}}{{P}}_{{ij}}{\cdot}{{\rm{ln}}}{{P}}_{{ij}} $
    $ {{W}}_{{j}}{=}\dfrac{{1-}{{E}}_{{j}}}{{k-}\displaystyle\sum {{E}}_{{j}}}{(}{j}{=1,2}{,}{\cdots}{,}{m)} $
    $ {{W}}_{{ij}}{=}\raisebox{1ex}{${{W}}_{{j}}$} \left/ \raisebox{-1ex}{${\displaystyle\sum }_{{1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{j}}$}\right. $
    Pij为第j个指标所占比重;Ej为第j个指标熵值;Wj为各指标权重;Wij为修正后的指标权重;n为地级市数;m为各系统指标总数 权重的确定过程中避免
    主观因素的影响
    确定各指标权重
    综合评价指数 $ {{R}}_{{{\rm{WR}}}}{=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{\rm{j=1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{i}{j}}{{X}}_{{ij}} $
    $ {{R}}_{{{\rm{ES}}}}{=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{\rm{j=1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{ij}}{{X}}_{{ij}} $
    $ {{R}}_{{{\rm{EE}}}}{=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{\rm{j=1}}^{\rm{m}}{{W}}_{{ij}}{{X}}_{{ij}} $
    $ {T}{={\rm{a}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{+{\rm{b}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{+{\rm{c}}×}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}} $
    RWRRESREE分别为水资源、经济社会、生态环境系统综合评价指数; T为三系统综合评价指数;a、b和c分别为各系统所占权重,a=b=c=1/3 对各系统发展水平进行测度 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统及各系统综合评价指数
    耦合协调度 $ {C=3×}{\left\{\dfrac{{{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{×}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{×}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}}}{{\left({{R}}_{\rm{ES}}{+}{{R}}_{\rm{EE}}{+}{{R}}_{\rm{WR}}\right)}^{{3}}}\right\}}^{{1/3}} $
    $ {D}{=}\sqrt{{C×T}} $
    C为耦合度;D为耦合协调度,参考相关学者[23-25]研究结果,耦合协调度划分见下表3 耦合度是对系统间关联程度进行度量的指标[24];耦合协调度可判定系统间的协调发展状况 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境耦合协调度
    重心偏移 $ {{\rm{a}}=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}}{{{\rm{a}}}}_{{i}}/{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}} $
    $ {{\rm{b}}=}{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}}{{{\rm{b}}}}_{{{\rm{i}}}}/{\displaystyle\sum }_{{{\rm{i}}=1}}^{{{\rm{n}}}}{{{\textit{z}}}}_{{i}} $
    zi为第i个空间单元的属性值(即RWRRESREED);ai、bi为经纬度值;a、b为该属性的重心坐标,详见文献[26] 当区域的属性值在总体中占比较大时,重心发生偏移,旨在揭示区域发展的空间均衡程度 探究甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统综合评价指数和耦合协调度重心演化过程
    重心移动距离 $ {D}{=}{C}\sqrt{{{(}{{{\rm{b}}}}_{{({\rm{t}}+1)}}{-}{{{\rm{b}}}}_{{{\rm{t}}}}{)}}^{{2}}{+}{{(}{{{\rm{a}}}}_{{({\rm{t}}+1)}}{-}{{{\rm{a}}}}_{{{\rm{t}}}}{)}}^{{2}}} $ C为转换系数111.111 km,详见文献[26];t为年份 可反映区域属性值变动的距离 计算甘肃省水资源—经济社会—生态环境系统综合评价指数和耦合协调度重心的移动距离
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  耦合协调度等级划分

    Table  3.   Classification of coupling coordination levels

    协调等级失调濒临失调基本协调初级协调中级协调高级协调优质协调
    耦合协调度[0,0.4)[0.4,0.5)[0.5,0.6)[0.6,0.7)[0.7,0.8)[0.8,0.9)[0.9,1.0]
    下载: 导出CSV
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