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Driving factors of water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling in Gansu Province
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摘要: 揭示水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合协调的主要影响因素，对加强自然资源与经济社会系统宏观管理、推动区域可持续发展具有重要意义。基于内源动力和外向动力两个维度选取要素，在区域水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合协调演变分析的基础上，引入固定效应模型测度2010—2019年甘肃省水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合协调的驱动因素。结果表明：（1）经济发展水平、科技水平对甘肃省水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合协调水平的提升具有正向作用，回归系数分别为0.029和0.021，且通过了1%的显著性检验；（2）分区影响因素差异显著，环境保护水平和经济发展水平的提高对各分区耦合协调度的提高具有促进作用。据此，在加快甘肃省经济社会发展的背景下，应协同相关政策及驱动因素的激励措施，推动水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统耦合演进。Abstract: Revealing the main influencing factors of coupled water resources-economic society-ecological environment coordination is important for strengthening the macro management of natural resources and economic society systems as well as promoting regional sustainable development. With the selection of indicators based on two dimensions of endogenous and outward dynamics, this study introduces a fixed-effects model to measure the coupled water resources-economic society-ecological environment coordination drivers in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2019 by analyzing the evolution of regional water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling. The results show that: ① The level of economic development and technological development have a positive effect on the improvement of the level of coupled water resources-economic society-ecological environment coordination in Gansu Province, with regression coefficients of 0.029 and 0.021 respectively, and passing the 1% significance test. ② The factors influencing the zoning areas differ significantly, the improvement of the level of environmental protection and economic development has a catalytic effect on the improvement of the coupling coordination of the sub-regions. In the context of accelerating economic society development in Gansu Province, policies and incentives of relevant drivers should be coordinated to promote the coupled evolution of water resources-economic society-ecological environment system.
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图 1 2010—2019年甘肃省14个市（州）耦合协调度
Figure 1. Degree of coupling coordination among 14 cities (states) in Gansu from 2010 to 2019
表 1 相关系数及VIF检验
Table 1. Correlation coefficient and VIF test
变量 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X1 1 X2 0.620*** 1 X3 0.368*** −0.092 1 X4 −0.656*** −0.616*** −0.451*** 1 X5 −0.013 −0.032 0.193** −0.198** 1 X6 −0.207** −0.283*** 0.456*** −0.184** 0.222*** 1 X7 −0.607*** −0.470*** −0.230*** 0.599*** −0.557*** 0.201** 1 fVIF 3.53 3.04 2.37 3.90 2.57 2.28 4.54 注：***、**、*分别代表各变量在1%、5%和10%水平上显著，下同。 
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表 2 面板数据单位根检验结果
Table 2. Results of unit root tests for panel data
变量 HT检验 IPS检验 ADF检验 结论 统计值 P值 统计值 P值 统计值 P值 Y 0.216** 0.048 −2.155** 0.016 22.830 0.742 非平稳 ΔY −0.286*** 0 −5.063*** 0 50.205*** 0.006 平稳 X1 −0.110*** 0 −2.155** 0.016 109.715*** 0 平稳 ΔX1 −0.461*** 0 −4.223*** 0 52.590*** 0.003 平稳 X2 0.635 0.997 2.417 0.992 8.894*** 0 非平稳 ΔX2 0.090** 0.013 −1.029*** 0.002 34.472*** 0.007 平稳 X3 0.372 0.489 −1.173 0.120 24.209 0.671 非平稳 ΔX3 −0.055*** 0 −4.255*** 0 67.125*** 0 平稳 X4 −0.096*** 0 −3.721*** 0 48.362* 0.061 平稳 ΔX4 −0.462*** 0 −4.409*** 0 97.731*** 0 平稳 X5 0.460 0.814 0.209 0.583 20.754 0.836 非平稳 ΔX5 0.032*** 0.003 −4.080*** 0 73.273*** 0 平稳 X6 0.069*** 0.001 −3.611*** 0 117.860*** 0 平稳 ΔX6 −0.280*** 0 −4.004*** 0 226.342*** 0 平稳 X7 −0.343*** 0 −5.288*** 0 41.022* 0.054 平稳 ΔX7 −0.579*** 0 −5.518*** 0 47.910** 0.011 平稳 注：Δ表示一阶差分。
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表 3 协整检验结果
Table 3. Results of cointegration tests
方法 统计量名 统计值 P值 结论 Pedroni检验 Panel ADF −10.382*** 0 拒绝 Panel PP −9.765*** 0 拒绝 KAO检验 ADF −4.071*** 0 拒绝
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表 4 全样本及分地区回归结果
Table 4. Whole sample and sub-regional regression results
变量 甘肃省 河西内陆区 陇东陇中黄土高原区 甘南高原区 南部秦巴山区 中部沿黄河区 X1 0.029***(5.14) 0.094***(6.44) 0.014(1.48) −0.066(−1.42) 0.037(0.72) −0.009(−0.11) X2 0.029(0.92) −0.0003(−0.01) 0.028(0.37) −0.356***(−1.65) 0.290***(1.33) 0.071(0.58) X3 0.021***(4.24) −0.002(−0.22) 0.001(0.09) 0.021**(2.03) −0.026(−1.33) 0.094***(8.84) X4 −0.011(−0.61) −0.017(−0.78) −0.178(−2.44) −0.112***(−2.99) −0.104(−0.99) −0.374***(−2.71) X5 −0.004(−0.60) −0.055***(−2.85) −0.017***(−1.58) −0.080***(−3.07) 0.081*(1.71) 0.024(0.41) X6 0.004(1.15) 0.010(1.50) 0.061***(4.55) 0.021***(3.29) 0.040***(1.55) 0.008(1.15) X7 0.006(0.98) −0.0095(−0.82) 0.023(1.02) 0.058**(2.18) 0.015(0.61) 0.077***(4.21) Constant 0.172*(1.90) −0.689***(−2.69) 0.138(0.83) 1.289**(2.27) −0.060(−0.08) −0.120(−0.11) 观察值 140 50 30 20 20 20 区域数 14 5 3 2 2 2 R2 0.988 0.987 0.989 0.976 0.976 0.999 注：括号内的值为相应的标准误差。
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