黄光玮,郭成超,蔡华阳,等. 沿海地面沉降对风暴潮作用下洪水淹没影响的析因试验[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2024.. doi: 10.12170/20230418003
引用本文: 黄光玮,郭成超,蔡华阳,等. 沿海地面沉降对风暴潮作用下洪水淹没影响的析因试验[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2024.. doi: 10.12170/20230418003
(HUANG Guangwei, GUO Chengchao, CAI Huayang, et al. Designing factorial experiments to investigate the impact of land subsidence on flood inundation in coastal areas during storm surges[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2024(in Chinese)). doi: 10.12170/20230418003
Citation: (HUANG Guangwei, GUO Chengchao, CAI Huayang, et al. Designing factorial experiments to investigate the impact of land subsidence on flood inundation in coastal areas during storm surges[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2024(in Chinese)). doi: 10.12170/20230418003

沿海地面沉降对风暴潮作用下洪水淹没影响的析因试验

Designing factorial experiments to investigate the impact of land subsidence on flood inundation in coastal areas during storm surges

  • 摘要: 地面沉降会加剧沿海地区潮灾风险。基于验证良好的MIKE 21水动力模型预测珠海市未来地面沉降和风暴潮影响下洪水淹没情况,引入并设计析因试验以量化地面沉降和风暴潮对洪水淹没的单独效应、主效应和交互效应。结果表明:珠海市地面沉降在平沙镇东北至白蕉镇西南呈条带状分布,对洪水淹没存在空间“放大效应”。地面沉降和风暴潮交互作用会加剧鸡啼门水道和泥湾门水道两侧洪水向内陆演进的趋势;与内陆相比,沿岸农田和水产养殖区的淹没对地面沉降更为敏感。交互作用时两个因素的单独效应均增强,二者对洪水淹没存在正向协同交互作用。未来100年地面沉降情景下,地面沉降主效应约为风暴潮主效应的1.11~29.49倍,表明地面沉降在淹没效应中占主导地位,在预测未来风暴淹没时须考虑地面沉降的影响。

     

    Abstract: The exacerbation of flood risks in coastal areas due to land subsidence necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the associated dynamics. In this study, the research employed a high-resolution and well-validated hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21) to predict coastal inundation in Zhuhai, Guangdong province, considering the combined influence of land subsidence and storm surge. To quantify the individual, main, and interaction effects of land subsidence and storm surge on coastal inundation, the study devised a factorial experiment. Our findings reveal the significant land subsidence in Zhuhai, primarily concentrated in a strip distribution spanning from northeast Pingsha town to southwest Baijiao town. Moreover, the reserch observed a spatial magnification effect of land subsidence on flood inundation. The interaction effect of land subsidence and storm surge intensifies the inland propagation of coastal floods, particularly on both sides of the Jitimen and Niwanmen channels. Furthermore, we found that the nearshore cropland and aquaculture areas exhibit greater sensitivity to land subsidence compared to urban inland areas. Notably, the combined effect of land subsidence and storm surge synergistically enhances flood inundation, thereby amplifying the individual effects of both factors. In the scenario of 100 years of land subsidence in Zhuhai, the main effect of land subsidence outweighs that of storm surge by a factor of approximately 1.11 to 29.49, underscoring the dominant role of land subsidence in coastal inundation. Consequently, accurate predictions of future coastal inundation resulting from storm surges must incorporate the consideration of land subsidence.

     

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