Abstract: Effective evaluation of the evolution characteristics of regional water resources carrying capacity system and diagnosis of vulnerability influencing factors, introducing the idea of physical heat transfer, further deepening the concept of potential difference between deterministic items and uncertain items on the basis of set pair analysis of traditional subtraction set pair potential, and constructing an evaluation method of regional water resources carrying capacity based on heat transfer subtraction set pair potential, and an empirical application study is carried out in Jianghuai hilly area of Anhui Province. The results show that from 2011 to 2018, except Hefei, the water resources carrying capacity of other cities in Jianghuai hilly region of Anhui Province showed an overall upward trend, and the level of water resources carrying capacity in Hefei was low, and the factors such as per capita water resources, water production modulus and ecological water use rate were important fragile factors affecting the change of water resources carrying capacity in Jianghuai hilly region of Anhui Province. On the whole, the calculation and analysis results of this paper are basically consistent with those of traditional subtraction and semi-partial subtraction set pair potential, which shows that the calculation results of the water resources carrying capacity evaluation method based on heat transfer subtraction set pair potential are reasonable and effective, and further enrich and develop the rich connotation of set pair potential, which can provide a new research way for regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation and vulnerability factor identification.