Email Alerts
RSS
Analysis of multi-time scales of precipitation pattern at different durations for Nanning city
-
摘要: 为研究不同历时降水事件的结构及变化趋势，借助小波分析的时频多分辨功能，从降水历时角度出发，将1971—2012年南宁市国家级地面气象站逐小时降水观测数据分为1~3 h，4~6 h，7~10 h，10 h以上4个历时，分析其多尺度周期变化。结果表明：①1~3 h, 4~6 h, 7~10 h, 10 h以上降水次数时间尺度的主周期分别在28，27，29和11年左右，7 h以下降水次数周期变化明显大于7 h及以上。②4个历时降水量的主周期分别在28，26，29和12年左右，除7~10 h外，其他历时降水量周期变化都很明显，正负相位交替变化十分明显。③根据分析结果预测，在未来2年内，除4~6 h降水量外，其他历时的降水次数及量都将呈负相位趋势。分析不同历时降水结构的周期变化规律可为深入探索区域降水循环变异规律提供依据。Abstract: In order to study the patterns and changing trends of different duration precipitation events, by using the time-frequency multi-resolution of wavelet analysis functions, the time-frequency multi-resolution function of the wavelet analysis was applied to this study. And the hourly rainfall observation data obtained from the Nanning National Ground Meteorological Station from 1971 to 2012 were divided into four durations: 1~3 hours, 4~6 hours, 7~10 hours and more than 10 hours from a precipitation duration point of view, which was used for analyzing the multi-scale cycle changes. The analysis results show that: ① the major periods of 1~3 hours, 4~6 hours, 7~10 hours and more than 10 hours time scales of the precipitation are respectively in 28, 27, 29, 11 years or so; ② the major periods of the four precipitation durations are 28, 26, 29, 12 years or so, except for the 7~10 hours, others have a very significant change in the precipitation durations, the positive and negative phases of the change are very remarkable; ③from the analysis results it can be predicted that in the next 2 years, the precipitation frequencies and precipitation of other durations will have a negative phase trend in addition to the 4~6 hours precipitation. The periodic variation law of the precipitation patterns of different durations can provide a basis for further exploring and analyzing the regional water cycle variation.
-
Key words:
- hydrology /
- precipitation duration /
- precipitation frequency /
- precipitation /
- wavelet analysis /
- multi-time scales
-
图 2 各历时降水次数小波系数实部时频分布
Figure 2. Time frequency distribution of real part of wavelet coefficients in duration of precipitation frequency
图 3 各历时降水次数小波系数模平方时频分布
Figure 3. Time frequency distribution of wavelet coefficient modulus square in duration of precipitation frequency
图 5 主要时间尺度下各历时降水次数小波实部变换过程
Figure 5. Real part of wavelet transformation process of duration of precipitation frequency in main time scale
图 6 各历时降水量小波系数实部的时频分布
Figure 6. Time frequency distribution of real part of wavelet coefficients during precipitation
图 7 各历时降水量小波系数模平方时频分布
Figure 7. Frequency distribution of modulus square of wavelet coefficients in different durations of precipitation
-
[1] 王小玲, 翟盘茂. 1957~2004年中国不同强度级别降水的变化趋势特征[J].热带气象学报, 2008, 24(5): 459-466. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200805004.htm WANG Xiaoling, ZHAI Panmao. Changes in China's precipitation in various categories during 1957~2004[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2008, 24(5): 459-466. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200805004.htm [2] 邵晓梅, 许月卿, 严昌荣.黄河流域降水序列变化的小波分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 42(4): 503-509. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BDXP200601015.htm SHAO Xiaomei, XU Yueqing, YAN Changrong, et al. Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Beijing University(Natural Science), 2006, 42(4): 503-509. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BDXP200601015.htm [3] 梅伟, 杨修群.我国长江中下游地区降水变化趋势分析[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版), 2005, 41(6): 577-589. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJDZ200506000.htm MEI Wei, YANG Xiuqun. Trends of precipitation variations in the mid-lower Yangtze River valley of China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University (Natural Science), 2005, 41(6): 577-589. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJDZ200506000.htm [4] 宋晓猛, 张建云, 刘九夫, 等.北京地区降水结构时空演变特征[J].水利学报, 2015, 46(5): 525-535. http://youxian.cnki.com.cn/yxdetail.aspx?filename=STBY201706059&dbname=CJFDPREP SONG Xiaomeng, ZHANG Jianyun, LIU Jiufu, et al. Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation pattern in Beijing[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2015, 46(5): 525-535. (in Chinese) http://youxian.cnki.com.cn/yxdetail.aspx?filename=STBY201706059&dbname=CJFDPREP [5] 冶运涛, 梁犁丽, 龚家国, 等.长江上游流域降水结构时空演变特性[J].水科学进展, 2014, 25(2): 164-171. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKXJ201402002.htm YE Yuntao, LIANG Lili, GONG Jiaguo, et al. Spatial-temporal variability characteristics of precipitation structure across the upper Yangtze River basin, China[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2014, 25(2): 164-171. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKXJ201402002.htm [6] 王文圣, 丁晶, 向红莲.小波分析在水文学中的应用研究及展望[J].水科学进展, 2002, 13(4) : 515-520. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKXJ200204020.htm WANG Wensheng, DING Jing, XIANG Honglian. Application and prospect of wavelet analysis in hydrology[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2002, 13(4): 515-520. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKXJ200204020.htm [7] BOGGESS A. A first course in wavelets with Fourier analysis[M]. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, 2009: 4-10. [8] 李芳, 林中达, 左瑞亭, 等.基于经验正交函数和奇异值分解对东亚季风区跨季度夏季降水距平的订正方法[J].气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(3): 380-390. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200503031.htm LI Fang, LIN Zhongda, ZUO Ruiting, et al. The methods for correcting the summer precipitation anomaly predicted extraseasonally over East Asian monsoon region based on EOF and SVD[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2005, 10(3): 380-390. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200503031.htm [9] 王文圣, 丁晶, 金菊良.随机水文学[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2008. WANG Wensheng, DING Jing, JIN Juliang. Stochastic hydrology[M]. Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2008. (in Chinese) [10] 罗光坤. Morlet小波变换理论与应用研究及软件实现[D]. 南京: 南京航空航天大学, 2007. LUO Guangkun. A study of morlet wavelet transform theory and application with software implementation[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2007. (in Chinese) [11] 康玲, 杨正祥, 姜铁兵.基于Morlet小波的丹江口水库入库流量周期性分析[J].计算机工程与科学, 2009, 31(11): 149-152. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJK200911042.htm KANG Ling, YANG Zhengxiang, JIANG Tiebing. The periodical analysis of the Danjiangkou reservoir inflow based on the morlet wavelet[J]. Computer Engineering and Science, 2009, 31(11): 149-152. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJK200911042.htm [12] 徐利岗, 周宏飞, 梁川, 等.中国北方荒漠区降水多时间尺度变异性研究[J].水利学报, 2009, 40(8): 1002-1011. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SLXB200908016.htm XU Ligang, ZHOU Hongfei, LIANG Chuan, et al. Multi-time scale variability of precipitation in the desert region of North China[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2009, 40(8): 1002-1011. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SLXB200908016.htm [13] 张艳艳, 钟德钰, 吴保生.黄河下游平滩流量驱动与响应模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2012, 52(6): 759-765. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHXB201206006.htm ZHANG Yanyan, ZHONG Deyu, WU Baosheng. Response model for the bankfull discharge in the Lower Yellow River[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2012, 52(6): 759-765. (in Chinese) http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHXB201206006.htm -
下载:
点击查看大图
图(9)
计量
- 文章访问数: 955
- HTML全文浏览量: 20
- PDF下载量: 904
- 被引次数: 0
