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Influence of sea-entering channel phase Ⅱ project on flood risk in Hongze Lake area
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摘要: 为探究淮河入海水道二期工程对洪泽湖的泄洪能力以及周边滞洪区的影响，在对研究区河网概化及地形处理的基础上，建立了研究区河网一维、洪泽湖湖区与周边滞洪区二维耦合的水动力数值模型，并采用1991，2003，2006，2007四年实测历史洪水资料对模型进行率定及验证。基于现状工况、规划工况以及不同洪水量级，设计了5个对比方案对研究区进行洪水演进数值模拟，对不同洪水量级进行横向对比，对不同工况进行纵向对比，并对不同方案进行淹没面积分析和洪水影响分析。结果表明，入海水道二期工程的启用可以有效降低洪泽湖水位，提高洪泽湖的防洪标准和周边滞洪区的启用标准，减少同等洪水量级下的受影响人口数和区域GDP，为洪泽湖的防洪安全建设以及周边蓄滞洪区的稳定发展创造了条件。Abstract: In order to study the influence of the sea-entering channel phase Ⅱ project on the discharge capacity of the Hongze Lake and its surrounding detention basin, a 1-D and 2-D coupled hydrodynamic numerical model is established, based on the generalization of river network and topographic treatment. Four years' historical flood data of 1991, 2003, 2006 and 2007 are used for the calibration and verification of the coupled model. Based on the present working condition, planning condition and different flood magnitudes, five plans are designed for comparison and numerical simulation. The flooded area and the population and GDP affected by the flood are analyzed. The results show that the sea-entering channel phase Ⅱ project will decrease the water level of the Hongze Lake efficiently, and increase the flood control standard of the Hongze Lake and the activation standard of the surrounding detention basin. The sea-entering channel phase Ⅱ project will reduce the population and regional GDP influenced by the same flood magnitude, and it will provide opportunities for the flood control and safety construction in the Hongze Lake area and for the stable development of the surrounding detention basin.
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Key words:
- numerical simulation /
- sea-entering channel /
- Hongze Lake /
- flood risk
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图 2 率定验证所用水文站地理位置分布
Figure 2. Hydrological stations used for calibration and verification
图 3 2003和2007年水位实测值与计算值对比
Figure 3. Comparison of water level between measured and calculated values in 2003 and 2007
图 4 洪泽湖总入流、总出流及蒋坝水位过程
Figure 4. Process of inflow, outflow and water level of Hongze Lake
图 5 洪泽湖总入流、总出流及蒋坝水位过程
Figure 5. Process of inflow, outflow and water level of Hongze Lake
表 1 水位过程参数统计
Table 1. Parameter statistics of water level
年份 水文站 实测最高水位/m 计算最高水位/m 绝对误差/m 确定性系数 最大差绝对值/m 2003 临淮头 14.38 14.28 -0.10 0.97 0.13 尚嘴 14.21 14.22 0.01 0.91 0.17 香城庄 14.28 14.26 -0.02 0.90 0.17 蒋坝 14.15 14.04 -0.11 0.86 0.15 2007 临淮头 13.88 13.82 -0.06 0.96 0.12 尚嘴 13.80 13.80 0 0.94 0.13 香城庄 13.80 13.71 -0.09 0.91 0.15 蒋坝 13.59 13.50 -0.09 0.89 0.11 
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表 2 计算方案设置情况
Table 2. Scheme settings
方案 工况 上边界 下边界 方案1 现状工况 洪泽湖50年设计入湖洪水过程 三河闸、二河闸、高良涧闸出湖口水位-流量关系 方案2 现状工况 洪泽湖100年设计入湖洪水过程 方案3 规划工况(入海水道二期) 方案4 现状工况 洪泽湖300年设计入湖洪水过程 方案5 规划工况(入海水道二期)
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表 3 入海水道水位-流量关系
Table 3. Q-h relationship of sea-entering channel
蒋坝水位/m 入海水道二期建成前/
(m3· s-1)入海水道二期建成后/
(m3· s-1)12.33 0 1 500 12.83 0 2 900 13.33 0 4 020 13.83 2 000 4 660 14.33 2 270 5 300 14.83 2 270 5 950 15.13 2 270 6 370 15.33 2 270 6 540 15.83 2 270 7 100 16.33 2 270 7 100 16.83 2 270 8 400
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表 4 不同淹没水深对应的淹没面积
Table 4. Submerged area under different submerged depths
淹没水深/m 淹没面积/km2 方案1 方案2 方案3 方案4 方案5 0.05~0.3 19.34 21.42 22.28 22.82 23.22 0.3~0.5 34.17 36.85 33.14 44.91 37.92 0.5~1.0 150.67 176.56 160.88 191.53 174.25 1.0~2.0 293.29 319.67 283.06 358.22 360.50 ≥2.0 209.43 376.70 198.66 631.53 407.47 合计(≥0.05) 706.90 931.20 698.02 1 249.01 1 003.36
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表 5 洪水影响统计
Table 5. Statistics of flood influence
方案 受灾人口/(万人) 受影响GDP/(万元) 方案1 35.6 1 102 215.9 方案2 49.7 1 446 595.5 方案3 35.2 1 089 741.4 方案4 69.3 1 918 824.0 方案5 54.2 1 545 874.5
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