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Study on the indexes and evaluation method of carrying capacity of the navigation channel in the lower Yangtze River
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摘要: 依托黄金水道建设长江经济带是国家重大发展战略。随着经济社会发展，长江两岸对航道等级提出了更高需求，航道承载能力成为迫切需要研究的问题。针对长江下游航道特点，初步提出了航道承载力的内涵，并初步建立了长江下游航道承载力评价体系和评价方法。根据长江下游湖口至南京河段航道约束因素分析，基于“驱动力-状态-影响”(DSI)模型，结合层次分析法，将承载力评价指标分为目标层、准则层、要素层和指标层4个层次，进而构建了长江下游航道承载力评价体系。构造了各层次判断矩阵并进行一致性检验，探讨了航道承载力评价的量化方法，从而确定了指标权重并对各类指标进行了标准化处理，最后提出了航道承载力初步评价方法，为长江下游的航道承载力评价提供依据。
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关键词:
- 航道承载力 /
- "驱动力-状态-影响"模型 /
- 层次分析法 /
- 指标体系 /
- 长江下游
Abstract: Relying on the golden waterway to build the Yangtze River Economic Belt is a major national development strategy in China. With the economic and social development, higher demands have been proposed on the Yangtze River navigation channel, therefore, it is urgent to study the carrying capacity of the navigation channel. Based on the characteristics of the lower Yangtze River, the concept of the carrying capacity of the navigation channel is proposed, and a preliminary evaluation system and an evaluation method are established. In this study, based on the analysis of the constraint factors of the navigation channel between the HuKou and Nanjing reaches in the lower Yangtze River, an evaluation system for the carrying capacity of the navigation channel was constructed using the "Driving force-State-Influence" (DSI) model and the analytic hierarchy method. This system includes four levels - the target level, the criteria level, the feature level, and the indicator level. In order to determine the index weight, a judgment matrix of each level was constructed and a consistency test was carried out. Then, the quantification method was discussed, the weight value for each index was given and the indexes were standardized. Finally, a preliminary comprehensive evaluation method for determining the carrying capacity of the navigation channel was proposed, to provide a basis for further evaluation of the carrying capacity of the navigation channel in the low reaches of the Yangtze River. -
图 1 长江下游湖口到南京河段概况及主要桥梁、港口及保护区
Figure 1. Sketch of Hukou to Nanjing reach and main bridges, ports and protected zones in lower Yangtze River
图 3 航道承载力等级划分
Figure 3. Classification of the carrying capacity of navigation channels
表 1 江西、安徽、江苏三省生态保护区分级统计[13]
Table 1. Grading statistics of ecological protection zones in Jiangxi, Anhui and Jiangsu Provinces
地区 数量/个 面积/hm2 国家级 省级 市级 县级 合计 国家级 省级 市级 县级 合计 江西 8 17 1 148 174 144 474 238 239 2 049 741 484 1 126 246 安徽 5 13 5 53 76 127 264 188 952 852 45 072 362 140 江苏 0 6 2 1 9 0 53 814 2 431 643 56 888 合计 13 36 8 202 259 271 738 481 005 5 332 787 199 1 545 274 
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表 2 航道承载力评价指标体系
Table 2. Evaluation index system of the carrying capacity of navigation channels
目标层 准则层 要素层 指标层 航道承载力
(A)驱动力(B1) 社会经济条件(C1) 区域经济增长率(D1) 政策需求(C2) 国家战略(D2) 水域区际交流(C3) 航运需求(D3) 状态(B2) 自然资源条件(C4) 水深(D4) 河势稳定性(D5) 制约工程(C5) 桥梁(D6) 影响(B3) 防洪影响(C6) 洪水位(D7) 河堤前沿流速(D8) 河势稳定(C7) 断面流量(D9) 主支汊分流比(D10) 滩槽演变趋势(D11) 主流变化(D12) 洲滩剖面形态(D13) 岸坡稳定(D14) 水利工程(C8) 取排水口(D15) 水闸(D16) 桥梁(D17) 码头(D18) 生态(C9) 生物多样性(D19) 栖息地多样性(D20) 生物丰度(D21) 硬质化(D22)
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表 3 可量化指标筛选后长江下游航道承载力指标
Table 3. Quantifiable evaluation index system of the carrying capacity of navigation channels in the lower Yangtze River after selection
目标层 准则层 要素层 指标层 指标 权重 指标 权重 指标 权重 航道承载力
(A)驱动力(B1) 0.250 社会经济条件(C1) 0.537 区域经济增长率(D1) 0.561 水域区际交流(D2) 0.439 政策需求(C2) 0.463 国家战略(D3) 1.000 状态(B2) 0.250 自然资源条件(C3) 1.000 水深(D4) 0.505 河势稳定性(D5) 0.495 制约工程(C4) / 桥梁(D6) / 影响(B3) 0.500 防洪影响(C5) 0.302 洪水位(D7) 1.000 河势稳定(C6) 0.225 滩槽稳定(D8) 0.560 分流比(D9) 0.440 生态(C7) 0.276 生物丰度(D10) 1.000 水利工程(C8) 0.197 取排水口(D11) 1.000
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表 4 影响类指标标准化后的取值
Table 4. Normalized value of impact indexes
评价指标 指标标准化评级 (80, 100] (60, 80] (40, 60] (20, 40] [0, 20] 洪水位/cm ≤4 (4, 6] (6, 8] (8, 10] ≥10 滩槽稳定/% ≤20 (20, 40] (40, 60] (60, 80] ≥80 分流比/% ≤0.5 (0.5, 1.5] (1.5, 3.0] (3.0, 5.0] ≥5.0 生物丰度/% ≤20 (20, 40] (40, 60] (60, 80] ≥80 取排水口/% ≤20 (20, 40] (40, 60] (60, 80] ≥80
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