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Change in return period of storm flood in plain river network area under urbanization—taking Wuchengxiyu region of Taihu Lake basin as a case study
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摘要: 以太湖流域武澄锡虞区典型雨量水文站为例，基于长时间序列逐日降雨与水位数据，采用累积距平法、皮尔逊频率曲线和克里金插值等方法对水位进行还现分析以及对暴雨洪水重现期进行分析，探讨了城镇化背景下典型平原河网区暴雨洪水重现期变化规律及成因。结果表明：(1)武澄锡虞区不同量级降雨重现期均有提前，极端降雨频率增大；武澄锡虞区小量级洪水事件(T=5, 10, 20 a)发生频率有所增加，而量级较大(T=50 a)的洪峰水位重现期在城区与郊区则差异显著。受圩垸影响的常州站1960年50年一遇洪峰水位在2010年增至68年一遇，洪峰水位整体降低，而郊区白芍山站1960年50年一遇洪峰水位在2010年则提前至32年，洪峰水位整体有所增加。(2)小量级洪水事件发生频率增加主要是由降雨增加、城镇扩张以及河网水系衰减所致，同等量级的暴雨导致洪峰水位不断增长；而闸泵和圩垸等水利工程建设加强了对较高量级洪水的调节作用，使高量级洪峰水位有所降低，减小了城区圩垸内洪水风险。对于不同量级的洪峰水位，下垫面特征变化和水利工程建设对其影响的程度则有所不同。分析结果可为研究该地区防洪安全提供技术支持。Abstract: Taking the Wuchengxiyu region as an example, based on the long-term sequence daily rainfall and water level data, the cumulative anomaly method, Pearson frequency curve and Kriging interpolation method are used to analyze the changes of the water level and the storm flood return period. The change regularity and causes of the flood return period and the storm flood in the typical plain river network area under the background of urbanization are discussed. The analysis results show that the return periods of rainfall with different magnitude are ahead of schedule, and extreme rainfall is frequent and its frequency increases in Wuchengxiyu region. The occurrence frequency of the small-scale flood events (T=5, 10, 20 a) in the Wuchengxiyu region has increased, and the return period of the larger-scale flood peak stage (T=50 a) is obviously different between urban and suburban areas. The flood with 50 a return period in 1960 increased to 68 a in 2010 at Changzhou station affected by polders, with overall flood level reduction, while the flood with 50 a return period at Baishaoshan station in suburbs decreased to 32 a in 2010, with overall rise of flood level. The increase of the frequency in the small magnitude flood events was mainly caused by the rainfall increase, urban expansion and the attenuation of the river network and water system, and the flood peak water level in 2010 under the same magnitude of rainfall in 1960 continuously increased. The construction of the hydroprojects such as sluices, pumping stations and embankments has played an increasingly important role in regulating higher-level floods, resulting in a reduction of flood risk in the urban areas. For different magnitudes of the flood peak water level, the changes of the underlying surface characteristics and the influence degree of the hydraulic engineering construction are different. The analysis results can provide a technical reference for the study of the flood control safety in this area.
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Key words:
- storm flood /
- return period /
- hydroproject
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图 1 武澄锡虞区地理位置及典型雨量水位站点
Figure 1. Locations and typical rainfall water level stations in Wuchengxiyu region
图 2 常州站和白芍山站最大24 h降雨与同场次洪峰水位分时段统计
Figure 2. Statistical data of maximum 24-hour rainfall and corresponding peak stage in different periods at Changzhou and Baishaoshan stations
图 3 常州站和白芍山站水位突变分析
Figure 3. Mutation analysis of water level at Changzhou and Baishaoshan stations
图 4 常州站和白芍山站汛期最高洪峰水位修正结果
Figure 4. Correction results of highest peak stage at Changzhou and Baishaoshan stations in flood season
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