数字孪生流域水资源“预演”模型研究及应用

Real-time simulation and scheduling model of a digital twin watershed for water resources preview

  • 摘要: 针对已有水资源系统模拟与调度模型难以满足水资源“正反向预演”对水资源多要素模拟预测、复杂调控规则高效优化的问题。在梳理流域水资源管理预演需求基础上,提出根据孪生关键节点划分水资源系统基本单元的思路,并给出系统概化原则、单元建模方法,以及可模拟不同调度方案下流域水资源系统可用水-来水-需水-用水-缺水多要素动态变化的“正向预演”模型;在模拟模型基础上,构建可适用不同调度目标的优化调度模型,提出流域水资源系统“反向预演”模型。并将上述方法应用于黄垒河流域数字孪生平台建设中,典型干旱年(2015年)复盘和实时缺水事件(2023年5月)动态研判结果表明,该方法实现了流域水资源多要素全过程模拟计算和指定目标下地表水库、河道闸坝、取用水工程调度规则高效优化。可为水资源预演中常规调度方案下研判发现问题、决策会商下预演调度决策影响、指定目标下优化调度方案提供有力模型支撑。

     

    Abstract: Existing water resource system simulation and scheduling models fall short in meeting the demands of "forward and reverse pre-rehearsal" in water resource allocation and management. These demands entail multi-element simulation and forecasting, integrated with the flexible and efficient optimization of complex regulation rules. To address these challenges, this study first reviews the pre-rehearsal requirements for basin-level water resource management. On this basis, it proposes a novel approach that divides the water resource system into core units by twinning key nodes. The study outlines system generalization principles and unit modeling methodologies, and introduces a comprehensive simulation model for basin water resources. This model simulates the dynamic interactions of various elements—available water, inflow, demand, usage, and shortage—across multiple scheduling schemes, capturing the full lifecycle of water resource dynamics within the basin. Further, based on this simulation model, the study develops a method for constructing optimization-based scheduling models adaptable to diverse scheduling goals, thereby providing a framework for efficiently deriving optimal operational rules. The proposed methods are implemented on the digital twin platform developed for the Huanglei River Basin (Shandong Peninsula, China). Validation is carried out through two key case studies: Retrospective Analysis of a Typical Drought Year (2015): The model accurately reproduced historical drought conditions, validating its capability for historical scenario reconstruction ("reverse pre-rehearsal"). Dynamic Assessment of a Real-time Water Shortage Event (May 2023): The platform dynamically evaluated a live water shortage scenario, demonstrating its utility for real-time awareness and forecasting ("forward pre-rehearsal"). The findings confirm that the proposed approach enables: Full-process simulation of multi-element water dynamics throughout the basin; highly efficient optimization of scheduling rules for key infrastructure—including surface reservoirs, sluices/dams, and water diversion works—under various goals. Significance and Support Capabilities: The integrated modeling framework offers robust computational support for pre-rehearsal functions in three key domains: (1) Identifying Issues under Routine Schemes: Facilitates early detection and diagnosis during evaluations of conventional scheduling plans. (2) Pre-rehearsing Decision Impacts during Consultations: Supports assessment of anticipated impacts prior to implementing decisions during coordination meetings. (3) Deriving Optimized Schemes for Specific Targets: Enables generation of scientifically grounded, optimized scheduling strategies for defined management goals (e.g., maximizing supply reliability, minimizing shortages, or preserving ecological flows). In sum, this research delivers a robust, adaptable modeling foundation essential for enhancing the precision and effectiveness of water resource pre-rehearsal within digital twin-based basin management systems.

     

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